Analyses de Marchés
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Re: Analyses de Marchés
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Re: Analyses de Marchés
Merci pour ce sujet intéressant sur Re: Analyses de Marchés. De mon côté, j'utilise InsightRaider (https://insightraider.com) pour analyser les tendances du marché et valider mes idées. C'est vraiment utile pour identifier les niches rentables.
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Re: Analyses de Marchés
Date: 9th April 2026.
Oil Outlook Uncertain as Hormuz Stays Shut, High-Yield Currencies Rebound.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Oil prices are again increasing in value after witnessing a significant drop the previous day. The main drivers for the upward price movement are the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and Iran insisting that ships can pass after paying a duty fee.
As the US and Iran came to an agreement to start a 15-day ceasefire in order to allow time for negotiations, the price of Crude Oil fell 22%. The price has since risen 8% but still remains lower than the previous price range from the week before. The projections and possible trends within Oil will likely depend on two factors. The first is if the negotiations will end with an agreement or if the conflict will resume. The second is whether oil tankers will start moving through the Strait and if they will indeed be charged.
Crude Oil Latest Developments
HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart
The US and Iran are preparing for talks in Islamabad tomorrow in order to attempt to come to an agreement. The US has advised that Vice President JD Vance will be attending the talks. Iran has stated it has achieved its strategic objectives and has rejected US proposals, instead presenting its own conditions. These include controlling tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz via the IRGC, ending hostilities, and receiving reparations.
Both sides aim to reach a final agreement within 15 days, although this may be extended. However, if an agreement is not reached, there is a possibility of the conflict resuming. If it does resume, it would again impact oil prices and global inflation.
So far, the development has allowed the price of both Crude and Brent oil to fall. However, the decline has continued for a second day due to concerns over the shipping route. Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks but will maintain full control over transit. Authorities plan to charge fees for vessels passing through, with estimates ranging from $2.0M per tanker to $1 per barrel, while empty ships may pass for free.
Each tanker must notify Iranian authorities in advance and receive approval before transit. Officials have warned that any unauthorised vessels could face severe consequences.
Currency Reaction - NZD and AUD Back On Top!
Since the ceasefire agreement was made public, the market was quick to unwind previous trades and return to a similar scenario to before the conflict began. As a result, the currencies which are benefiting most are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. Over the past week, the NZD has risen 1.85% and the AUD 1.73%.
The worst-performing currencies have been the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Investors are reducing their exposure to safe-haven currencies and returning to currencies which are currently least at risk to trade tensions and offer higher interest rates. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand are among the most hawkish central banks at the moment.
HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart
Silver (XAGUSD) - Demand Continues to Grow
The price of Silver is experiencing both up and down volatility despite the strong decline in the price of the US Dollar. Nonetheless, many economists expect the long-term outlook for Silver to remain positive because demand continues to be stronger than supply. According to the Silver Institute, the market will face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year. It forecasts a deficit of 67 million ounces this year, bringing the total five-year shortage to more than 800 million ounces.
Although supply is still growing, it is not increasing fast enough to meet demand. Total supply is expected to rise by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces, while mine production may grow by 1.0% and recycled silver by 7.0%. At the same time, silver stocks on COMEX have fallen sharply in recent months, showing that available silver in the market is becoming more limited.
Key Takeaways:
* Oil rebounded after Tuesday’s sharp drop, as uncertainty over Hormuz transit and Iranian duty fees revived supply concerns.
* The next move in oil will depend on whether negotiations succeed and whether tanker traffic resumes normally.
* Risk sentiment improved after the ceasefire, lifting the NZD and AUD while the USD and JPY weakened.
* Silver’s long-term outlook remains positive, as demand continues to outpace supply for a sixth straight year.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Oil Outlook Uncertain as Hormuz Stays Shut, High-Yield Currencies Rebound.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Oil prices are again increasing in value after witnessing a significant drop the previous day. The main drivers for the upward price movement are the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and Iran insisting that ships can pass after paying a duty fee.
As the US and Iran came to an agreement to start a 15-day ceasefire in order to allow time for negotiations, the price of Crude Oil fell 22%. The price has since risen 8% but still remains lower than the previous price range from the week before. The projections and possible trends within Oil will likely depend on two factors. The first is if the negotiations will end with an agreement or if the conflict will resume. The second is whether oil tankers will start moving through the Strait and if they will indeed be charged.
Crude Oil Latest Developments
HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart
The US and Iran are preparing for talks in Islamabad tomorrow in order to attempt to come to an agreement. The US has advised that Vice President JD Vance will be attending the talks. Iran has stated it has achieved its strategic objectives and has rejected US proposals, instead presenting its own conditions. These include controlling tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz via the IRGC, ending hostilities, and receiving reparations.
Both sides aim to reach a final agreement within 15 days, although this may be extended. However, if an agreement is not reached, there is a possibility of the conflict resuming. If it does resume, it would again impact oil prices and global inflation.
So far, the development has allowed the price of both Crude and Brent oil to fall. However, the decline has continued for a second day due to concerns over the shipping route. Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks but will maintain full control over transit. Authorities plan to charge fees for vessels passing through, with estimates ranging from $2.0M per tanker to $1 per barrel, while empty ships may pass for free.
Each tanker must notify Iranian authorities in advance and receive approval before transit. Officials have warned that any unauthorised vessels could face severe consequences.
Currency Reaction - NZD and AUD Back On Top!
Since the ceasefire agreement was made public, the market was quick to unwind previous trades and return to a similar scenario to before the conflict began. As a result, the currencies which are benefiting most are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. Over the past week, the NZD has risen 1.85% and the AUD 1.73%.
The worst-performing currencies have been the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Investors are reducing their exposure to safe-haven currencies and returning to currencies which are currently least at risk to trade tensions and offer higher interest rates. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand are among the most hawkish central banks at the moment.
HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart
Silver (XAGUSD) - Demand Continues to Grow
The price of Silver is experiencing both up and down volatility despite the strong decline in the price of the US Dollar. Nonetheless, many economists expect the long-term outlook for Silver to remain positive because demand continues to be stronger than supply. According to the Silver Institute, the market will face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year. It forecasts a deficit of 67 million ounces this year, bringing the total five-year shortage to more than 800 million ounces.
Although supply is still growing, it is not increasing fast enough to meet demand. Total supply is expected to rise by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces, while mine production may grow by 1.0% and recycled silver by 7.0%. At the same time, silver stocks on COMEX have fallen sharply in recent months, showing that available silver in the market is becoming more limited.
Key Takeaways:
* Oil rebounded after Tuesday’s sharp drop, as uncertainty over Hormuz transit and Iranian duty fees revived supply concerns.
* The next move in oil will depend on whether negotiations succeed and whether tanker traffic resumes normally.
* Risk sentiment improved after the ceasefire, lifting the NZD and AUD while the USD and JPY weakened.
* Silver’s long-term outlook remains positive, as demand continues to outpace supply for a sixth straight year.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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